Why Saudi Investment Hasn't Transformed Newcastle into Championship Contenders

Eddie Howe is not given to dramatics or sweeping media statements. So by his usual demeanor, his media briefing after the weekend's loss to West Ham qualifies as a furious tirade. His side took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by half-time, as well as striking the woodwork and having a penalty revoked by VAR, leading Howe to execute a three substitutions at the break.

“The opening period was particularly irritating,” the coach said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I believe this indicated of our performance level at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. Actually, I cannot recall having done so during my tenure as head coach of Newcastle, so I felt the squad required a significant change at the break. This explains why I did what I did.”

Three key players were substituted at the interval and the team managed to steady to an extent in the second half, but never appearing like they might fight back into the contest against an opponent that had won only one of their last nine league matches. Considering how packed the centre of the table currently is, with a mere three-point gap separating the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between the upper and lower ranks, a run of 12 points from ten matches has not placed the Magpies stranded but, equally, they cannot finish the season in 13th.

The Problem of Expectations

The challenge partially is one of perception. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle have the richest backers in the globe. The assumption when the PIF acquired 80% of the team in recent years was that it would bring a transformative effect, as Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two investors took over prior to the advent of financial fair play rules (and the current charges against City relate to if they violated those guidelines once they were implemented).

Profit and sustainability restrictions limit the capacity of owners, no matter how wealthy, to invest funds on their teams and so in that sense likely might have slowed any Saudi attempt to raise Newcastle to the standard of Manchester City. However there is no need for Newcastle’s spending to have been so restrained as it has; they might have invested further and remained within the threshold – or just accepted a fairly minor Uefa penalty since their major problem is more with the continental than the domestic regulation.

Infrastructure Spending and PSR Rules

Besides which, stadium development is exempted from PSR calculations; the simplest method to increase revenue to generate more PSR headroom would be to expand or renovate the stadium. Considering the site of St James’ Park, with listed buildings on two sides, practically that probably means constructing an completely new venue. Rumors circulated in spring of potentially undertaking the nearby relocation to Leazes Park – opposition from local groups could surely have been overcome with a commitment to build a replacement green space on the existing stadium site – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has been substantial retrenchment from the PIF on a range of initiatives as it shifts focus on domestic affairs; the attitude to Newcastle seems completely in alignment with that change of approach.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The star striker episode was arose from that conflict. A bolder leadership could have framed his sale as necessary to free up capital for further spending; instead there was a unsuccessful attempt to retain him. That meant Newcastle began the season amidst a sense of frustration despite the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The start was indifferent: a single victory in their first six fixtures.

Yet it appeared a turning point had been turned. They secured five victories in six matches before Sunday, a run that included convincing wins of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the Champions League. That’s why the performance against West Ham was such a shock. The issue maybe is that the team's approach is very aggressive, high-energy; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound effects. Perhaps the strain of Premier League, Champions League and cup matches, five games in a fortnight, had taken its toll. The German forward featured in all five games and looked especially weary.

Reality of Contemporary Soccer

This is the reality of modern football. Coaches must be ready to rotate. Howe has been unlucky that the forward's injury has left him lacking forward choices but, regardless of how valid the explanations, Sunday’s performance was inexcusable –particularly after scoring first at a ground ready to criticize its home team.

Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when everybody is below par simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to secure the European competition in the future, let alone one day mount an actual championship bid, they must not be as unreliable as they have been.